Hedge calculator
Holding a bet that has gained value? Enter it and the price on the other side now. See the stake that locks a profit, the stake that gets your money back, and what letting it ride risks.
The price you took
What you already risked
Best price you can get today
- Your ticket pays
- $400.00$100.00 at +300 returns this, stake included, if it wins.
- Hedge stake
- $240Bet this on the other side at -150 so both outcomes pay the same. Exact $240.00.
- Locked profit
- +$60.00+$60.00 whichever side wins, on $340.00 total at risk (17.6% return).
Other ways to play it
- Break-even hedge
- $150Bet this and you get your $100 back if the ticket loses. If it wins you keep +$150.00.
- Let it ride
- +$300.00No hedge: win +$300.00 or lose $100.00. Only the right call if you think the ticket's true chance beats the 25.0% its price implies.
How a hedge locks a profit
Your ticket pays its stake times its decimal odds if it wins. Bet the other side for that payout divided by the other side's decimal odds, and both outcomes return the same amount. What is left after both stakes is locked in.
A worked example
You took $100 at +300 on a team to win its division. The ticket now pays $400. The other side is -150 (1.67 decimal). Bet about $240 on it and both outcomes return about $400 on $340 staked: roughly $60 of profit whichever way it goes, instead of $300 or nothing.
When not to hedge
Hedging trades expected value for certainty, and the book takes its margin on the hedge too. If you still believe your ticket's real chance is better than its price implies, letting it ride is worth more on average. Hedge when the swing would hurt more than the margin costs.
Mind the settlement rules. A hedge only locks a profit when both bets grade the same way. Overtime, regulation-only markets and player props that void when the player sits can each turn a hedge into two bets that both lose.